Brent at $108.87 with a War Premium That Refuses to Quit

Quick summary

Brent fell to $108.87 per barrel despite escalating Iran tensions, because a war premium is already priced in — what is moving now is a temporary diplomatic premium declining by the hour. Gold rises to $4,560 while Gulf markets maintain a striking calm reflecting either confidence or denial.

Why it matters

If a U.S. strike on Iran were to occur on Tuesday, it could push Brent above $110, which would increase electricity and transport bills locally despite government support. Oil prices above the $110 level begin to strain Gulf state budgets, especially if the conflict extends and affects imports and commodities.

Key takeaways

• ›Brent closed at $108.87 (-1.86%) despite active Iran war headlines — the premium was pre-loaded
• ›Gold's rally to $4,560.11 (+0.61%) is the cleanest signal of where hedging money is positioned
• ›Tadawul flat at 10,956.10; GCC pegs (SAR 3.7500, AED 3.6725) unmoved as expected
• ›Pakistan reportedly deploying troops and jets to Saudi Arabia; Gulf states asked Washington to delay a planned Tuesday strike